TY  - JOUR
AB  - Calibration, the estimation of model parameters based on fitting the model to experimental data, is among the first steps in many applications of process-based models and has an important impact on simulated values. We propose a novel method of developing guidelines for calibration of process-based models, based on development of recommendations for calibration of the phenology component of crop models. The approach was based on a multi-model study, where all teams were provided with the same data and asked to return simulations for the same conditions. All teams were asked to document in detail their calibration approach, including choices with respect to criteria for best parameters, choice of parameters to estimate and software. Based on an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the various choices, we propose calibration recommendations that cover a comprehensive list of decisions and that are based on actual practices.
AU  - Wallach, D.*
AU  - Palosuo, T.*
AU  - Thorburn, P.*
AU  - Hochman, Z.*
AU  - Gourdain, E.*
AU  - Andrianasolo, F.*
AU  - Asseng, S.*
AU  - Basso, B.*
AU  - Buis, S.*
AU  - Crout, N.*
AU  - Dibari, C.*
AU  - Dumont, B.*
AU  - Ferrise, R.*
AU  - Gaiser, T.*
AU  - Garcia, C.*
AU  - Gayler, S.*
AU  - Ghahramani, A.*
AU  - Hiremath, S.*
AU  - Hoek, S.*
AU  - Horan, H.*
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.*
AU  - Huang, M.*
AU  - Jabloun, M.*
AU  - Jansson, P.E.*
AU  - Jing, Q.*
AU  - Justes, É.*
AU  - Kersebaum, K.C.*
AU  - Klosterhalfen, A.*
AU  - Launay, M.*
AU  - Lewan, E.*
AU  - Luo, Q.*
AU  - Maestrini, B.*
AU  - Mielenz, H.*
AU  - Moriondo, M.*
AU  - Zadeh, H.N.*
AU  - Padovan, G.*
AU  - Olesen, J.E.*
AU  - Poyda, A.*
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Pullens, J.W.M.*
AU  - Qian, B.*
AU  - Schuetze, N.*
AU  - Shelia, V.*
AU  - Souissi, A.*
AU  - Specka, X.*
AU  - Srivastava, A.K.*
AU  - Stella, T.*
AU  - Streck, T.*
AU  - Trombi, G.*
AU  - Wallor, E.*
AU  - Wang, J.*
AU  - Weber, T.K.D.*
AU  - Weihermueller, L.*
AU  - de Wit, A.*
AU  - Woehling, T.*
AU  - Xiao, L.*
AU  - Zhao, C.*
AU  - Zhu, Y.*
AU  - Seidel, S.J.*
C1  - 63223
C2  - 51234
CY  - The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford Ox5 1gb, Oxon, England
TI  - The chaos in calibrating crop models: Lessons learned from a multi-model calibration exercise.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 145
PB  - Elsevier Sci Ltd
PY  - 2021
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - A modeling framework (ReKinSim - Reaction Kinetics Simulator) is introduced, within which biogeochemical reactions in environmental systems can be described and inversely fitted to experimental data. Three key features of this simulation environment are: (1) a generic mathematical tool for solving sets of unlimited, arbitrary, non-linear ordinary differential equations; (2) no limitation to the number or type of reactions or other influential dynamics (e.g., isotope fractionation or small-scale mass-transfer limitations); (3) an easy to use and flexible module for nonlinear data-fitting. It allows users to easily define any kinetic model by a set of biogeochemical reactions relevant to the experimental application and to obtain the values of the kinetic parameters by fitting of the model to data. By allowing users to include the environmentally related processes and solving them along with the chemical kinetics, ReKinSim helps the user to elucidate the extent that these processes are controlled by factors other than kinetics. The novelty of the presented program primary lays in its unique combination of flexibility, computational efficiency and user-friendliness. ReKinSim's usability is showcased by four case studies of varying complexity, and compared against a set of currently available modeling tools.
AU  - Gholami Gharasoo, M.
AU  - Thullner, M.*
AU  - Elsner, M.
C1  - 52016
C2  - 43735
CY  - Oxford
SP  - 12-20
TI  - Introduction of a new platform for parameter estimation of kinetically complex environmental systems.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 98
PB  - Elsevier Sci Ltd
PY  - 2017
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - In this virtual thematic issue (VTI) the authors of 14 papers address key challenges of environmental modelling and software to support the identification of human and ecological health risks. The contributions address different pathways how environmental exposure can affect human health with a focus on models, data and software and can be divided into the following research areas: (1) modelling approaches to quantify air pollution concentrations and exposure, (2) models and methods to determine health effects of air pollution, (3) models and software to predict and quantify disease and health risks and (4) data interoperability and integration. These contributions highlight that further advances in this research field are required, especially from highly polluted regions, as so far papers from these regions are scarce. The majority of contributions covers exposure to ambient air pollution, which is a key public health risk in both industrialised and developing countries. While not a focus of this VTI, human exposure to water and soil contamination as well as exposure pathways through other environmental media are equally relevant. Further research into how modelling, software and data can support an integrated assessment of the whole Exposome is therefore essential.
AU  - Reis, S.*
AU  - Voigt, K.
AU  - Oxley, T.*
C1  - 50838
C2  - 42906
CY  - Oxford
SP  - 106-108
TI  - Thematic issue on modelling human and ecological health risks.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 93
PB  - Elsevier Sci Ltd
PY  - 2017
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.
AU  - Ruane, A.C.*
AU  - Hudson, N.I.*
AU  - Asseng, S.*
AU  - Camarrano, D.*
AU  - Ewert, F.*
AU  - Martre, P.*
AU  - Boote, K.J.*
AU  - Thorburn, P.J.*
AU  - Aggarwal, P.K.*
AU  - Angulo, C.*
AU  - Basso, B.*
AU  - Bertuzzi, P.*
AU  - Biernath, C.J.
AU  - Brisson, N.*
AU  - Challinor, A.J.*
AU  - Doltra, J.*
AU  - Gayler, S.*
AU  - Goldberg, R.*
AU  - Grant, R.F.*
AU  - Heng, L.*
AU  - Hooker, J.*
AU  - Hunt, L.A.*
AU  - Ingwersen, J.*
AU  - Izaurralde, R.C.*
AU  - Kersebaum, K.C.*
AU  - Kumar, S.N.*
AU  - Müller, C.*
AU  - Nendel, C.*
AU  - O'Leary, G.*
AU  - Olesen, J.E.*
AU  - Osborne, T.M.*
AU  - Palosuo, T.*
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Ripoche, D.*
AU  - Rötter, R.P.*
AU  - Semenov, M.A.*
AU  - Shcherbak, I.*
AU  - Steduto, P.*
AU  - Stöckle, C.O.*
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.*
AU  - Streck,T.*
AU  - Supit, I.*
AU  - Tao, F.*
AU  - Travasso, M.*
AU  - Waha, K.*
AU  - Wallach, D.*
AU  - White, J.W.*
AU  - Wolf, J.*
C1  - 48377
C2  - 39995
CY  - Oxford
SP  - 86-101
TI  - Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 81
PB  - Elsevier Sci Ltd
PY  - 2016
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Ionizing radiation causes genetic mutations, and nuclear facilities, research reactors, and power reactors discharge radionuclides and neutrons. On the basis of exhaustive municipality data, we considered the human birth sex ratio in 78 million births in Austria, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland, and The Netherlands (1957–2013). We present a novel environmental health modeling concept expressing the spatiotemporal association of the sex ratio with minimum distance from operating or decommissioned nuclear facilities. Spatial correlation of the sex ratio is assessed by directional and omnidirectional semivariogram analyses. We detected elevated human sex ratios near nuclear facilities, whether we analyzed comprehensive groups of nuclear installations, or looked at individual facilities in a descriptive and exploratory manner. The sex ratio increases are typically between a few per mill and a few percent, and they occur in regions of up to 40 km around the nuclear installations. Intensifying research in the field of radiation induced genetic effects is recommended.
AU  - Scherb, H.
AU  - Kusmierz, R.
AU  - Sigler, M.
AU  - Voigt, K.
C1  - 47382
C2  - 39273
CY  - Oxford
SP  - 343-353
TI  - Modeling human genetic radiation risks around nuclear facilities in Germany and five neighboring countries: A sex ratio study.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 79
PB  - Elsevier Sci Ltd
PY  - 2016
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - We compared the precision of simple random sampling (SimRS) and seven types of stratified random sampling (StrRS) schemes in estimating regional mean of water-limited yields for two crops (winter wheat and silage maize) that were simulated by fourteen crop models. We found that the precision gains of StrRS varied considerably across stratification methods and crop models. Precision gains for compact geographical stratification were positive, stable and consistent across crop models. Stratification with soil water holding capacity had very high precision gains for twelve models, but resulted in negative gains for two models. Increasing the sample size monotonously decreased the sampling errors for all the sampling schemes. We conclude that compact geographical stratification can modestly but consistently improve the precision in estimating regional mean yields. Using the most influential environmental variable for stratification can notably improve the sampling precision, especially when the sensitivity behavior of a crop model is known.
AU  - Zhao, G.*
AU  - Hoffmann, H.*
AU  - Yeluripati, J.*
AU  - Xenia, S.*
AU  - Nendel, C.*
AU  - Coucheney, E.*
AU  - Kuhnert, M.*
AU  - Tao, F.*
AU  - Constantin, J.*
AU  - Raynal, H.*
AU  - Teixeira, E.*
AU  - Grosz, B.*
AU  - Doro, L.*
AU  - Kiese, R.*
AU  - Eckersten, H.*
AU  - Haas, E.*
AU  - Cammarano, D.*
AU  - Kassie, B.*
AU  - Moriondo, M.*
AU  - Trombi, G.*
AU  - Bindi, M.*
AU  - Biernath, C.J.
AU  - Heinlein, F.
AU  - Klein, C.
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Lewan, E.*
AU  - Kersebaum, K.C.*
AU  - Rötter, R.P.*
AU  - Roggero, P.P.*
AU  - Wallach, D.*
AU  - Asseng, S.*
AU  - Siebert, S.*
AU  - Gaiser, T.*
AU  - Ewert, F.*
C1  - 48300
C2  - 39980
CY  - Oxford
SP  - 100-112
TI  - Evaluating the precision of eight spatial sampling schemes in estimating regional means of simulated yield for two crops.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 80
PB  - Elsevier Sci Ltd
PY  - 2016
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Networks of monitoring stations have been set up in many European countries to detect the passage of a radioactive cloud in the event of a large-scale nuclear emergency. The layout and spatial density of these networks differs according to the needs and criteria defined by national authorities. Germany and the Netherlands decided to set up relatively dense networks for the detection of weak radioactive plumes and, additionally, environmental radioactivity from deposited aerosols. Plausible evaluation criteria are presented here to assess important properties which determine the reliability and efficiency of sections of these networks. As a test case the existing sampling design of the Dutch and German networks with 193 sensors in an area of 200 km around the nuclear power plant near the city of Lingen (Emsland) in the German federal state of Lower Saxony has been selected. For a hypothetical accident scenario 292 radioactive plumes have been simulated which are shaped by recorded weather conditions of the year 2007. To quantify the network performance frequency distributions of the proposed evaluation parameters have been analyzed. Simulation results show that 95% of the plumes are detected within 4 h after the release. Maximal values of the gamma-dose rate 1 m above the ground mostly occur near the source within a radius of 5 km. However, under certain weather conditions maximal ground values may also be found more than 50 km away from the source. Within a circle of radius 90 km 98% of the recorded maximal gamma-dose rates of the plumes were found by 62% of the 193 sensors. But only in a joint network of German and Dutch sensors all simulated plumes triggered an alarm. This result encourages efforts of close international collaboration, e.g. between EU member states, in network design and operation. Test series which involved the removal of sensors either randomly or in a controlled way showed that the network configuration is fit for the intended purpose of detecting a large majority of plumes. But already a small reduction in the number of sensors would degrade the performance. Whereas the joint network triggers alarms reliably, it fails to detect the true plume maxima. The assessment criteria can be used for a revision of existing networks or for planning purposes in countries such as those applying for EU membership.
AU  - Urso, L.
AU  - Astrup, P.*
AU  - Helle, K.B.*
AU  - Raskob, W.*
AU  - Rojas-Palma, C.*
AU  - Kaiser, J.C.
C1  - 10699
C2  - 30487
SP  - 108-116
TI  - Improving evaluation criteria for monitoring networks of weak radioactive plumes after nuclear emergencies.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 38
PB  - Elsevier
PY  - 2012
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - One method for the evaluation of complex environmental and health datasets is the discrete mathematical method Hasse diagram technique based on partial orders. The introduced software program package is named PyHasse. In this paper we evaluate a possible human association between maternal exposure to organochlorine compounds used as pesticides and cryptorchidism among male children in Finland and Denmark. We identified differences in comparable and incomparable objects and quantified these differences by the software tool Similarity Analysis in the program PyHasse. Furthermore we interpreted the corresponding Hasse diagrams concerning chosen “striking objects”. We found the position of the chemicals AHCH (alpha-Hexachlorohexane), CHCE (cis-Heptachloroepoxide), DIEL (Dieldrin), and MIRE (Mirex) has some influence on the differentiation of the Hasse diagrams and hence of each two datasets analyzed. The largest disparities can be observed when we compare the Finnish and Danish datasets concerning cryptorchidism. The disparities are demonstrated in the corresponding Hasse diagrams.
AU  - Voigt, K.
AU  - Brüggemann, R.*
AU  - Scherb, H.
AU  - Shen, H.
AU  - Schramm, K.-W.
C1  - 5904
C2  - 27434
CY  - Oxford
SP  - 1801-1812
TI  - Evaluating the relationship between chemical exposure and cryptorchidism.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 25
IS  - 12
PB  - Elsevier
PY  - 2010
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - In contrast to conventional multi-criteria decision aids, such as the well known PROMETHEE approach, AHP or the different versions of ELECTRE, we support the basic assumption of environmetrics: let first the data speak, and then let us include subjective preferences in order to get a unique decision. In the present paper we introduce and discuss the decision support system METEOR (Method of Evaluation by Order Theory). The basis of the method is a data matrix. The rows are defined by the objects which are to be evaluated; the columns are defined by the attributes, which characterize the objects with respect to the evaluation problem. By means of the attributes a partial order is derived. In subsequent steps attributes are aggregated by a weighting procedure, allowing a high degree of participation of stakeholders and other participants of the planning process. The aim is to enrich the partial order stepwise, until the objects of interest can be compared. The software WHASSE written in Delphi is available for scientific purposes from the first author. As an example we evaluate 12 high production volume chemicals (HPVC) which have been detected in the environment by four attributes and discuss the enriched partial order after introducing some weights. It turns out that in some cases the weights have almost no influence concerning the evaluation result, whereas in some other cases slight variations of weights drastically change the evaluation result. Therefore, the metric space spanned by weights can be partitioned in so-called “stability fields” where the evaluation result is invariant and in so-called “hot spots”, where the evaluation is strongly changing. This characterisation of the space of weights is helpful for stakeholders to express their preferences.
AU  - Brüggemann, R.*
AU  - Voigt, K.
AU  - Restrepo, G.*
AU  - Simon, U.*
C1  - 3618
C2  - 25195
SP  - 1000-1012
TI  - The concept of stability fields and hot spots in ranking of environmental chemicals.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 23
IS  - 8
PB  - Elsevier Science
PY  - 2008
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Pillmann, W.*
AU  - Geiger, W.*
AU  - Voigt, K.
C1  - 5348
C2  - 23747
SP  - 1519-1527
TI  - Survey of environmental informatics in Europe.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 21
PY  - 2006
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AU  - Voigt, K.
AU  - Brüggemann, R.*
AU  - Pudenz, S.*
C1  - 152
C2  - 23728
SP  - 1587-1597
TI  - A multi-criteria evaluation of environmental databases using the Hasse Diagram Technique (ProRank) software.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 21
PY  - 2006
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Ecological modelling is frequently confronted with the problem of unavailable parameters, or input data of poor quality. This makes the interpretation of the results difficult, and predictions questionable, unless the quality of the parameters is taken into account. In this paper, we propose a mathematical approach to address the problem of large parameter variability in deterministic models, and especially in linear compartmental models. The method is based on a classical comparison theorem for differential equations, and yields upper and lower estimates for solutions when upper and lower estimates for the model input functions are given. Such estimates may be checked against experimental data, and thus play a crucial role in verification or falsification of model predictions. Applications are presented with regard to fate modelling of environmental chemicals in a pond sediment.
AU  - Walcher, S.
AU  - Altschuh, J.
AU  - Schramm, K.-W.
AU  - Mayer, S.*
C1  - 10213
C2  - 21155
SP  - 929-936
TI  - Estimates in deterministic fate modelling of environmental chemicals.
JO  - Environ. Modell. Softw.
VL  - 18
IS  - 10
PY  - 2003
SN  - 1364-8152
ER  -