TY  - JOUR
AB  - Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
AU  - Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.*
AU  - Scovronick, N.*
AU  - Sera, F.*
AU  - Royé, D.*
AU  - Schneider, R.*
AU  - Tobias, A.*
AU  - Åström, C.*
AU  - Guo, Y.*
AU  - Honda, Y.*
AU  - Hondula, D.M.*
AU  - Abrutzky, R.*
AU  - Tong, S.*
AU  - Coelho, M.d.S.Z.S.*
AU  - Saldiva, P.H.N.*
AU  - Lavigne, E.*
AU  - Correa, P.M.*
AU  - Ortega, N.V.*
AU  - Kan, H.*
AU  - Osorio, S.*
AU  - Kyselý, J.*
AU  - Urban, A.*
AU  - Orru, H.*
AU  - Indermitte, E.*
AU  - Jaakkola, J.J.K.*
AU  - Ryti, N.*
AU  - Pascal, M.*
AU  - Schneider, A.E.
AU  - Katsouyanni, K.*
AU  - Samoli, E.*
AU  - Mayvaneh, F.*
AU  - Entezari, A.*
AU  - Goodman, P.J.*
AU  - Zeka, A.*
AU  - Michelozzi, P.*
AU  - de’Donato, F.*
AU  - Hashizume, M.*
AU  - Alahmad, B.*
AU  - Diaz, M.H.*
AU  - Valencia, C.D.L.C.*
AU  - Overcenco, A.*
AU  - Houthuijs, D.*
AU  - Ameling, C.*
AU  - Rao, S.*
AU  - Di Ruscio, F.*
AU  - Carrasco-Escobar, G.*
AU  - Seposo, X.*
AU  - Silva, S.*
AU  - Madureira, J.*
AU  - Holobaca, I.H.*
AU  - Fratianni, S.*
AU  - Acquaotta, F.*
AU  - Kim, H.*
AU  - Lee, W.*
AU  - Iñiguez, C.*
AU  - Forsberg, B.*
AU  - Ragettli, M.S.*
AU  - Guo, Y.L.L.*
AU  - Chen, B.Y.*
AU  - Li, S.*
AU  - Armstrong, B.*
AU  - Aleman, A.*
AU  - Zanobetti, A.*
AU  - Schwartz, J.*
AU  - Dang, T.N.*
AU  - Dung, D.V.*
AU  - Gillett, N.*
AU  - Haines, A.*
AU  - Mengel, M.*
AU  - Huber, V.*
AU  - Gasparrini, A.*
C1  - 62230
C2  - 50718
CY  - Heidelberger Platz 3, Berlin, 14197, Germany
SP  - 492-500
TI  - The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.
JO  - Nat. Clim. Chang.
VL  - 11
IS  - 6
PB  - Nature Research
PY  - 2021
SN  - 1758-678X
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
AU  - Liu, B.*
AU  - Asseng, S.*
AU  - Müller, C.*
AU  - Ewert, F.*
AU  - Elliott, J.*
AU  - Lobell, D.B.*
AU  - Martre, P.*
AU  - Ruane, A.C.*
AU  - Wallach, D.*
AU  - Jones, J.W.*
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.*
AU  - Aggarwal, P.*
AU  - Alderman, P.D.*
AU  - Anothai, J.*
AU  - Basso, B.*
AU  - Biernath, C.J.
AU  - Cammarano, D.*
AU  - Challinor, A.J.*
AU  - Deryng, D.*
AU  - de Sanctis, G.*
AU  - Doltra, J.*
AU  - Fereres, E.*
AU  - Folberth, C.*
AU  - Garcia-Vila, M.*
AU  - Gayler, S.*
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.*
AU  - Hunt, L.A.*
AU  - Izaurralde, R.C.*
AU  - Jabloun, M.*
AU  - Jones, C.D.*
AU  - Kersebaum, K.C.*
AU  - Kimball, B.A.*
AU  - Koehler, A.-K.*
AU  - Kumar, S.N.*
AU  - Nendel, C.*
AU  - O´Leary, G.*
AU  - Olesen, J.E.*
AU  - Ottmann, M.J.*
AU  - Palosuo, T.*
AU  - Prasad, P.V.V.*
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Pugh, T.A.*
AU  - Reynolds, M.*
AU  - Rezaei, E.E.*
AU  - Rötter, R.P.*
AU  - Schmid, E.*
AU  - Semenov, M.A.*
AU  - Shcherbak, I.*
AU  - Stehfest, E.*
AU  - Stöckle, C.O.*
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.*
AU  - Streck,T.*
AU  - Supit, I.*
AU  - Tao, F.*
AU  - Thorburn, P.J.*
AU  - Waha, K.*
AU  - Wall, G.W.*
AU  - Wang, E.*
AU  - White, J.W.*
AU  - Wolf, J.*
AU  - Zhao, Z.*
AU  - Zhu, Y.*
C1  - 49503
C2  - 40698
CY  - London
SP  - 1130-1136
TI  - Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods.
JO  - Nat. Clim. Chang.
VL  - 6
IS  - 12
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
PY  - 2016
SN  - 1758-678X
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
AU  - Asseng, S.*
AU  - Ewert, F.*
AU  - Martre, P.*
AU  - Rötter, R.P.*
AU  - Lobell, D.B.*
AU  - Cammarano, D.*
AU  - Kimball, A.*
AU  - Ottmann, M.J.*
AU  - Wall, G.W.*
AU  - White, J.W.*
AU  - Reynolds, M.P.*
AU  - Aldermann, P.D.*
AU  - Prasad, P.V.V.*
AU  - Aggarwal, P.K.*
AU  - Anothai, J.*
AU  - Basso, B.*
AU  - Biernath, C.J.
AU  - Challinor, A.J.*
AU  - de Sanctis, G.*
AU  - Doltra, J.*
AU  - Fereres, E.*
AU  - Garcia-Vila, M.*
AU  - Gayler, S.*
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.*
AU  - Hunt, L.A.*
AU  - Izaurralde, R.C.*
AU  - Jabloun, M.*
AU  - Jones, C.D.*
AU  - Kersebaum, K.C.*
AU  - Koehler, A.-K.*
AU  - Müller, C.*
AU  - Naresh Kumar, S.*
AU  - Nendel, C.*
AU  - O'Leary, G.*
AU  - Olesen, J.E.*
AU  - Palosuo, T.*
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Eyshi Rezaei, E.*
AU  - Ruane, A.C.*
AU  - Semenov, M.A.*
AU  - Shcherbak, I.*
AU  - Stöckle, C.*
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.*
AU  - Streck,T.*
AU  - Supit, I.*
AU  - Tao, F.*
AU  - Thorburn, P.J.*
AU  - Waha, K.*
AU  - Wang, E.*
AU  - Wallach, D.*
AU  - Wolf, J.*
AU  - Zhao, Z.*
AU  - Zhu, Y.*
C1  - 43068
C2  - 35984
CY  - London
SP  - 143-147
TI  - Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.
JO  - Nat. Clim. Chang.
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
PY  - 2015
SN  - 1758-678X
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO 2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO 2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.
AU  - Asseng, S.*
AU  - Ewert, F.*
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.*
AU  - Jones, J.W.*
AU  - Hatfield, J.L.*
AU  - Ruane, A.C.*
AU  - Boote, K.J.*
AU  - Thorburn, P.J.*
AU  - Rötter, R.P.*
AU  - Cammarano, D.*
AU  - Brisson, N.*
AU  - Basso, B.*
AU  - Martre, P.*
AU  - Aggarwal, P.K.*
AU  - Angulo, C.*
AU  - Bertuzzi, P.*
AU  - Biernath, C.J.
AU  - Challinor, A.J.*
AU  - Doltra, J.*
AU  - Gayler, S.*
AU  - Goldberg, R.*
AU  - Grant, R.*
AU  - Heng, L.*
AU  - Hooker, J.*
AU  - Hunt, L.A.*
AU  - Ingwersen, J.*
AU  - Izaurralde, R.C.*
AU  - Kersebaum, K.C.*
AU  - Müller, C.*
AU  - Naresh Kumar, S.*
AU  - Nendel, C.*
AU  - O'Leary, G.*
AU  - Olesen, J.E.*
AU  - Osborne, T.M.*
AU  - Palosuo, T.*
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Ripoche, D.*
AU  - Semenov, M.A.*
AU  - Shcherbak, I.*
AU  - Steduto, P.*
AU  - Stöckle, C.*
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.*
AU  - Streck,T.*
AU  - Supit, I.*
AU  - Tao, F.*
AU  - Travasso, M.*
AU  - Waha, K.*
AU  - Wallach, D.*
AU  - White, J.W.*
AU  - Williams, J.R.*
AU  - Wolf, J.*
C1  - 27489
C2  - 32695
SP  - 827-832
TI  - Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change.
JO  - Nat. Clim. Chang.
VL  - 3
IS  - 9
PB  - Nature Publishing
PY  - 2013
SN  - 1758-678X
ER  -