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Scherb, H. ; Voigt, K. ; Kusmierz, R.*

Modelling human radiation risks around nuclear facilities in Germany and Switzerland: A case study.

In: Proceedings (2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Vision). Manno: International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs), 2012. 532-539

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Ever since the discovery of the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation, the possibility of birth sex odds shifts in exposed human populations was considered. The aim of this study was to investigate sex odds trends in the vicinity of nuclear facilities. Official gender specific annual live birth data were compiled at the levels of all municipalities in Germany, Switzerland and France. In a recently published study by the authors, the effect of ionizing radiation on the alteration of sex odds in the vicinity of German nuclear facilities was investigated. The authors revealed an increase in the sex odds. To assess spatial, temporal, as well as spatial-temporal trends in the sex odds and to investigate possible changes in the vicinity of nuclear facilities, we apply ordinary linear logistic regression. In the current study we put emphasis on the explanation of the modelling approach, which is developed for this evaluation of millions of birth statistic data. Furthermore, we add more evidence on the results of an increased sex odds by the evaluation of the surrounding of the TBL Gorleben (Transportbehälterlager: nuclear waste shipping casks storage) in Lower Saxony, Germany. A significant increase in the human sex odds at birth was revealed around Gorleben. Two different models are applied: The simple jump function and the Rayleigh function.

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