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Stollenwerk, B. ; Stock, S.* ; Siebert, U.* ; Lauterbach, K.W.* ; Holle, R.

Uncertainty assessment of input parameters for economic evaluation: Gauss's error propagation, an alternative to established methods.

Med. Decis. Making 30, 304-313 (2010)
DOI PMC
Open Access Green möglich sobald Postprint bei der ZB eingereicht worden ist.
In decision modeling for health economic evaluation, bootstrapping and the Cholesky decomposition method are frequently used to assess parameter uncertainty and to support probabilistic sensitivity analysis. An alternative, Gauss's error propagation law, is rarely known but may be useful in some settings. Bootstrapping, the Cholesky decomposition method, and the error propagation law were compared regarding standard deviation estimates of a hypothetic parameter, which was derived from a regression model fitted to simulated data. Furthermore, to demonstrate its value, the error propagation law was applied to German administrative claims data. All 3 methods yielded almost identical estimates of the standard deviation of the target parameter. The error propagation law was much faster than the other 2 alternatives. Furthermore, it succeeded the claims data example, a case in which the established methods failed. In conclusion, the error propagation law is a useful extension of parameter uncertainty assessment.
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Publikationstyp Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Schlagwörter Decision-analytic Modeling ; Error Propagation Law ; Health Economic Evaluation ; Uncertainty Assessment.
ISSN (print) / ISBN 0272-989X
e-ISSN 1552-681X
Zeitschrift Medical Decision Making
Quellenangaben Band: 30, Heft: 3, Seiten: 304-313 Artikelnummer: , Supplement: ,
Verlag Sage
Begutachtungsstatus Peer reviewed
Institut(e) Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management (IGM)