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Herder, C.* ; Baumert, J.J. ; Zierer, A. ; Roden, M.* ; Meisinger, C. ; Karakas, M.* ; Chambless, L.* ; Rathmann, W.* ; Peters, A. ; Koenig, W.* ; Thorand, B.

Immunological and cardiometabolic risk factors in the prediction of type 2 diabetes and coronary events: MONICA/KORA Augsburg case-cohort study.

PLoS ONE 6:e19852 (2011)
Verlagsversion Volltext DOI PMC
Open Access Gold
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
This study compares inflammation-related biomarkers with established cardiometabolic risk factors in the prediction of incident type 2 diabetes and incident coronary events in a prospective case-cohort study within the population-based MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort. Analyses for type 2 diabetes are based on 436 individuals with and 1410 individuals without incident diabetes. Analyses for coronary events are based on 314 individuals with and 1659 individuals without incident coronary events. Mean follow-up times were almost 11 years. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), changes in Akaike's information criterion (ΔAIC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated for different models. A basic model consisting of age, sex and survey predicted type 2 diabetes with an AUC of 0.690. Addition of 13 inflammation-related biomarkers (CRP, IL-6, IL-18, MIF, MCP-1/CCL2, IL-8/CXCL8, IP-10/CXCL10, adiponectin, leptin, RANTES/CCL5, TGF-β1, sE-selectin, sICAM-1; all measured in nonfasting serum) increased the AUC to 0.801, whereas addition of cardiometabolic risk factors (BMI, systolic blood pressure, ratio total/HDL-cholesterol, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, parental diabetes) increased the AUC to 0.803 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.111 [0.092-0.149] and 0.113 [0.093-0.149], respectively, compared to the basic model). The combination of all inflammation-related biomarkers and cardiometabolic risk factors yielded a further increase in AUC to 0.847 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.044 [0.028-0.066] compared to the cardiometabolic risk model). Corresponding AUCs for incident coronary events were 0.807, 0.825 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.018 [0.013-0.038] compared to the basic model), 0.845 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.038 [0.028-0.059] compared to the basic model) and 0.851 (ΔAUC [95% CI] 0.006 [0.003-0.021] compared to the cardiometabolic risk model, respectively. Inclusion of multiple inflammation-related biomarkers into a basic model and into a model including cardiometabolic risk factors significantly improved the prediction of type 2 diabetes and coronary events, although the improvement was less pronounced for the latter endpoint.
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Publikationstyp Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Korrespondenzautor
Schlagwörter c-reactive protein; middle-aged men; heart-disease; endothelial dysfunction; atherosclerosis risk; serum concentrations; european-society; mellitus; population; biomarkers
ISSN (print) / ISBN 1932-6203
Zeitschrift PLoS ONE
Quellenangaben Band: 6, Heft: 6, Seiten: , Artikelnummer: e19852 Supplement: ,
Verlag Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Verlagsort Lawrence, Kan.
Nichtpatentliteratur Publikationen
Begutachtungsstatus Peer reviewed
Institut(e) Institute of Epidemiology II (EPI2)