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Musundi, B.* ; Müller, J. ; Feng, Z.*

A multi-scale model for Cholera outbreaks.

Mathematics 10:3114 (2022)
Verlagsversion DOI
Open Access Gold
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag

Cholera, caused by the pathogenic Vibrio cholerae bacteria, remains a severe public health threat. Although a lot of emphasis has been placed on the population-level spread of the disease, the infection itself starts within the body. As such, we formulated a multi-scale model that explicitly connects the within-host and between-host dynamics of the disease. To model the within-host dynamics, we assigned each susceptible individual with a pathogen load that increases through the uptake of contaminated food and water (booster event). We introduced minimal and maximal times when the booster events happen and defined a time since the last booster event. We then scaled the within-host dynamics to the population where we structured the susceptible population using the two variables (pathogen load and time since the last booster event). We analyzed the pathogen load’s invariant distribution and utilized the results and time scale assumptions to reduce the dimension of the multi-scale model. The resulting model is an SIR model whose incidence function has terms derived from the multi-scale model. We finally conducted numerical simulations to investigate the long-term behavior of the SIR model. The simulations revealed parameter regions where either no cholera cases happen, where cholera is present at a low prevalence, and where a full-blown cholera epidemic takes off.

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Publikationstyp Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Korrespondenzautor
Schlagwörter Multi-scale Model ; Cholera ; Sir ; Structured Model ; Pathogen Load ; Spectral Analysis
ISSN (print) / ISBN 2227-7390
e-ISSN 2227-7390
Zeitschrift Mathematics
Quellenangaben Band: 10, Heft: 17, Seiten: , Artikelnummer: 3114 Supplement: ,
Verlag MDPI
Verlagsort Basel, Switzerland
Nichtpatentliteratur Publikationen
Begutachtungsstatus Peer reviewed
Förderungen German Research Foundation (DFG)
Deutscher Akademischer Austausch Dienst (DAAD)