OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes based on varying definitions of multiple islet autoantibody positivity (mIA). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Type 1 Diabetes Intelligence (T1DI) is a combined prospective data set of children from Finland, Germany, Sweden, and the U.S. who have an increased genetic risk for type 1 diabetes. Analysis included 16,709 infants-toddlers enrolled by age 2.5 years and comparison between groups using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: Of 865 (5%) children with mIA, 537 (62%) progressed to type 1 diabetes. The 15-year cumulative incidence of diabetes varied from the most stringent definition (mIA/Persistent/2: two or more islet autoantibodies positive at the same visit with two or more antibodies persistent at next visit; 88% [95% CI 85-92%]) to the least stringent (mIA/Any: positivity for two islet autoantibodies without co-occurring positivity or persistence; 18% [5-40%]). Progression in mIA/Persistent/2 was significantly higher than all other groups (P < 0.0001). Intermediate stringency definitions showed intermediate risk and were significantly different than mIA/Any (P < 0.05); however, differences waned over the 2-year follow-up among those who did not subsequently reach higher stringency. Among mIA/Persistent/2 individuals with three autoantibodies, loss of one autoantibody by the 2-year follow-up was associated with accelerated progression. Age was significantly associated with time from seroconversion to mIA/Persistent/2 status and mIA to stage 3 type 1 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: The 15-year risk of progression to type 1 diabetes risk varies markedly from 18 to 88% based on the stringency of mIA definition. While initial categorization identifies highest-risk individuals, short-term follow-up over 2 years may help stratify evolving risk, especially for those with less stringent definitions of mIA.
FörderungenCenters for Disease Control and Prevention National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases National Institutes of Health JDRF Washington State Life Science Discovery Fund Hussman Foundation Lund University Diabetes Centre Industrial Research Centre/Excellence Of Diabetes Research in Sweden (EXODIAB) from the Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research (Stiftelsen for Strategisk Forskning) Skane County Council's Foundation for Research and Development Royal Physiographic Society (Kungliga Fysiografiska Sallskapet i Lund) Lions Clubs International Foundation SUS Funds Nordisk Insulin Fund Swedish Diabetes Association European Union Swedish Research Council German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung) Sigrid Juseliuksen Saatio Foundation (Finland) Diabetes Research Foundation (Finland) Special Research Funds for University Hospitals in Finland Centre of Excellence in Molecular Systems Immunology and Physiology Research 2012-2017 Academy of Finland Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research Swedish Childhood Diabetes Foundation