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Open Access Gold möglich sobald Verlagsversion bei der ZB eingereicht worden ist.
Assessment of short-term heat effects on cardiovascular mortality and vulnerability factors using small area data in Europe.
Environ. Int. 179:108154 (2023)
BACKGROUND: Short-term associations between heat and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality have been examined mostly in large cities. However, different vulnerability and exposure levels may contribute to spatial heterogeneity. This study assessed heat effects on CVD mortality and potential vulnerability factors using data from three European countries, including urban and rural settings. METHODS: We collected daily counts of CVD deaths aggregated at the small-area level in Norway (small-area level: municipality), England and Wales (lower super output areas), and Germany (district) during the warm season (May-September) from 1996 to 2018. Daily mean air temperatures estimated by spatial-temporal models were assigned to each small area. Within each country, we applied area-specific Quasi-Poisson regression using distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the heat effects at lag 0-1 days. The area-specific estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis to derive country-specific and overall heat effects. We examined individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors by subgroup analyses and meta-regression, respectively. RESULTS: We included 2.84 million CVD deaths in analyses. For an increase in temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile, the pooled relative risk (RR) for CVD mortality was 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), with the country-specific RRs ranging from 1.04 (1.00, 1.09) in Norway to 1.24 (1.23, 1.26) in Germany. Heat effects were stronger among women [RRs (95% CIs) for women and men: 1.18 (1.08, 1.28) vs. 1.12 (1.00, 1.24)]. Greater heat vulnerability was observed in areas with high population density, high degree of urbanization, low green coverage, and high levels of fine particulate matter. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence for the heat effects on CVD mortality in European countries using high-resolution data from both urban and rural areas. Besides, we identified individual- and area-level heat vulnerability factors. Our findings may facilitate the development of heat-health action plans to increase resilience to climate change.
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Publikationstyp
Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Schlagwörter
Air Pollution ; Air Temperature ; Cardiovascular ; Effect Modification ; Meta-regression ; Urbanization; Air-pollution; Green Spaces; Temperature; Exposure; Inflammation; Metaanalysis; Outcomes; Island
ISSN (print) / ISBN
0160-4120
e-ISSN
1873-6750
Zeitschrift
Environment International
Quellenangaben
Band: 179,
Artikelnummer: 108154
Verlag
Elsevier
Verlagsort
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford Ox5 1gb, England
Nichtpatentliteratur
Publikationen
Begutachtungsstatus
Peer reviewed
Institut(e)
Institute of Epidemiology II (EPI2)
Förderungen
European Union