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Chen, K.* ; de Schrijver, E.* ; Sivaraj, S.* ; Sera, F.* ; Scovronick, N.* ; Jiang, L.* ; Royé, D.* ; Lavigne, E.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; Urban, A.* ; Schneider, A.E. ; Huber, V. ; Madureira, J.* ; Mistry, M.N.* ; Cvijanovic, I.* ; Gasparrini, A.* ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.*

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.

Nat. Commun. 15:1796 (2024)
Verlagsversion DOI PMC
Open Access Gold
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
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Publikationstyp Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Korrespondenzautor
Schlagwörter Climate-change; Projections; Heat; Cold
ISSN (print) / ISBN 2041-1723
e-ISSN 2041-1723
Zeitschrift Nature Communications
Quellenangaben Band: 15, Heft: 1, Seiten: , Artikelnummer: 1796 Supplement: ,
Verlag Nature Publishing Group
Verlagsort London
Nichtpatentliteratur Publikationen
Begutachtungsstatus Peer reviewed
Institut(e) Institute of Epidemiology (EPI)
Förderungen Swiss National Foundation
Earth System Grid Federation
European Union
Medical Research Council UK
Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnlogia Grant
Czech Science Foundation
Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project
European Commission
Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant