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Feurer, D.* ; Riffe, T.* ; Kniffka, M.S.* ; Acosta, E.* ; Armstrong, B.* ; Mistry, M.* ; Lowe, R.* ; Royé, D.* ; Hashizume, M.* ; Madaniyazi, L.* ; Ng, C.F.S.* ; Tobias, A.* ; Iñiguez, C.* ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.* ; Ragettli, M.S.* ; Lavigne, E.* ; Correa, P.M.* ; Ortega, N.V.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; Urban, A.* ; Orru, H.* ; Indermitte, E.* ; Maasikmets, M.* ; Dallavalle, M. ; Schneider, A.E. ; Honda, Y.* ; Alahmad, B.* ; Zanobetti, A.* ; Schwartz, J.* ; Carrasco, G.* ; Holobâcă, I.H.* ; Kim, H.* ; Lee, W.* ; Bell, M.L.* ; Scovronick, N.* ; Acquaotta, F.* ; Coelho, M.S.Z.S.* ; Diaz, M.H.* ; Arellano, E.E.F.* ; Michelozzi, P.* ; Stafoggia, M.* ; de'Donato, F.* ; Rao, S.* ; Di Ruscio, F.* ; Seposo, X.* ; Guo, Y.* ; Tong, S.* ; Masselot, P.* ; Gasparrini, A.* ; Sera, F.*

Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis.

Environ. Epi. 8:e338 (2024)
Postprint DOI PMC
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
OBJECTIVES: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. METHODS: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. RESULTS: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. CONCLUSIONS: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
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Publikationstyp Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Korrespondenzautor
Schlagwörter Covid-19 ; Distributed Lag Nonlinear Models ; Humidity ; Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network ; Precipitation ; Solar Radiation ; Temperature ; Time-series Design
ISSN (print) / ISBN 2474-7882
e-ISSN 2474-7882
Zeitschrift Environmental epidemiology
Quellenangaben Band: 8, Heft: 6, Seiten: , Artikelnummer: e338 Supplement: ,
Verlag Wolters Kluwer Health
Verlagsort Alphen aan den Rijn
Nichtpatentliteratur Publikationen
Begutachtungsstatus Peer reviewed
Institut(e) Institute of Epidemiology II (EPI2)