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Hundessa, S.* ; Huang, W.* ; Xu, R.* ; Yang, Z.* ; Zhao, Q.* ; Gasparrini, A.* ; Armstrong, B.* ; Bell, M.L.* ; Huber, V. ; Urban, A.* ; Coelho, M.R.* ; Sera, F.* ; Tong, S.* ; Royé, D.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; de'Donato, F.* ; Mistry, M.* ; Tobias, A.* ; Iñiguez, C.* ; Ragettli, M.S.* ; Hales, S.* ; Achilleos, S.* ; Klompmaker, J.* ; Li, S.* ; Guo, Y.*

Global excess deaths associated with heatwaves in 2023 and the contribution of human-induced climate change.

Innovation 6:101110 (2025)
Verlagsversion Forschungsdaten DOI PMC
Open Access Gold
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
An unprecedented heatwave swept the globe in 2023, marking it one of the hottest years on record and raising concerns about its health impacts. However, a comprehensive assessment of the heatwave-related mortality and its attribution to human-induced climate change remains lacking. We aim to address this gap by analyzing high-resolution climate and mortality data from 2,013 locations across 67 countries/territories using a three-stage modeling approach. First, we estimated historical heatwave-mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression model with distributed lag structures, considering lag effects, seasonality, and within-week variations. Second, we pooled the estimates in meta-regression, accounting for spatial heterogeneity and potential changes in heatwave-mortality associations over time. Third, we predicted grid-specific (0.5° × 0.5°) association in 2023 and calculated the heatwave-related excess deaths, death ratio, and death rate per million people. Attribution analysis was conducted by comparing heatwave-related mortality under factual and counterfactual climate scenarios. We estimated 178,486 excess deaths (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI], 159,892−204,147) related to the 2023 heatwave, accounting for 0.73% of global deaths, corresponding to 23 deaths per million people. The highest mortality rates occurred in Southern (120, 95% eCI, 116−126), Eastern (107, 95% eCI, 100−114), and Western Europe (66, 95% eCI, 62−70), where the excess death ratio was also higher. Notably, 54.29% (95% eCI, 45.71%−61.36%) of the global heatwave-related deaths were attributable to human-induced climate change. These results underscore the urgent need for adaptive public health interventions and climate mitigation strategies to reduce future mortality burdens in the context of increasing global warming.
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Publikationstyp Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Schlagwörter All-cause Mortality ; Death Rate ; Excess Death ; Global Burden Of Disease ; Heatwaves ; Human-induced Climate Change
Sprache englisch
Veröffentlichungsjahr 2025
HGF-Berichtsjahr 2025
ISSN (print) / ISBN 2666-6758
e-ISSN 2666-6758
Zeitschrift Innovation
Quellenangaben Band: 6, Heft: 10, Seiten: , Artikelnummer: 101110 Supplement: ,
Verlag Zeiss
Institut(e) Institute of Epidemiology (EPI)
POF Topic(s) 30202 - Environmental Health
Forschungsfeld(er) Genetics and Epidemiology
PSP-Element(e) G-504000-001
DOI 10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101110
Scopus ID 105017659374
PubMed ID 41084606
Erfassungsdatum 2025-10-23
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