Cognitive performance prediction may help identify early cognitive decline. However, the heterogeneity of research findings impedes the identification of key predictors. This study used 21,877 participants (25-74 years) from the German National Cohort (NAKO Gesundheitsstudie, NAKO) to systematically predict cognitive test scores based on brain structure, demographic, health-related, and cognitive data. Importantly, validation analyses were performed across study sites and external samples (1000BRAINS). Higher predictability was observed in the total sample compared to age-specific subgroups (10% difference in explained variance). Demographic (e.g. age) and cognitive data (e.g. memory) outperformed brain structure (e.g. grey matter volume) and health-related data (e.g. hypertension). Cognitive tests were differentially predictable, most evident between episodic memory and motor speed (R2 ≤ 0.32 versus R2 ≤ 0.18). Differences in predictability between age groups finally highlight the importance of comparing prediction outcomes between adult lifespan and age-specific groups to elucidate general and age-sensitive predictors of cognitive test scores.
Institut(e)Institute of Epidemiology (EPI) Helmholtz AI - FZJ (HAI - FZJ)
FörderungenUniversittsklinikum Dsseldorf. Anstalt ffentlichen Rechts (8911) Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR) European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme