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Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming.
Glob. Change Biol. 25, 1428-1444 (2019)
Postprint
Forschungsdaten
DOI
PMC
Efforts to limit global warming to below 2 degrees C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2 degrees C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 degrees C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 degrees C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2 degrees C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.
Impact Factor
Scopus SNIP
Web of Science
Times Cited
Times Cited
Scopus
Cited By
Cited By
Altmetric
8.880
2.614
26
60
Anmerkungen
Besondere Publikation
Auf Hompepage verbergern
Publikationstyp
Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Schlagwörter
1.5°c Warming ; Climate Change ; Extreme Low Yields ; Food Security ; Model-ensemble ; Wheat Production; Climate-change; Crop Yield; Impacts; Co2; Adaptation; Responses; Models; Agriculture; Simulation; Growth
Sprache
Veröffentlichungsjahr
2019
Prepublished im Jahr
2018
HGF-Berichtsjahr
2018
ISSN (print) / ISBN
1354-1013
e-ISSN
1365-2486
Zeitschrift
Global Change Biology
Quellenangaben
Band: 25,
Heft: 4,
Seiten: 1428-1444
Verlag
Wiley
Verlagsort
111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, Nj Usa
Begutachtungsstatus
Peer reviewed
Institut(e)
Research Unit Environmental Simulation (EUS)
POF Topic(s)
30202 - Environmental Health
Forschungsfeld(er)
Environmental Sciences
PSP-Element(e)
G-504912-001
WOS ID
WOS:000461817500018
Scopus ID
85060619598
PubMed ID
30536680
Erfassungsdatum
2018-12-20