Stochastic calculations for radiation risk assessment: A Monte-Carlo approach to the simulation of radiocesium transport in the pasture-cow-milk food chain.
Results from a Monte-Carlo simulation have been presented for the transport of 137Cs via the pasture-cow-milk pathway, taking into account the uncertainties and naturally occurring fluctuations in the rate constants. The results of the stochastic model calculations characterize the activity concentration at a given time t and provide a great deal more information for analysis of the environmental transport of radionuclides than deterministic calculations. Moreover, it permits an estimate of the variation of the physico-chemical behaviour of radionuclides in the environment in a more realistic way than by using only the highest transfer coefficients in deterministic approaches, which can lead to non-realistic overestimates of the probability with which high activity levels will be encountered.