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Asseng, S.* ; Ewert, F.* ; Martre, P.* ; Rötter, R.P.* ; Lobell, D.B.* ; Cammarano, D.* ; Kimball, A.* ; Ottmann, M.J.* ; Wall, G.W.* ; White, J.W.* ; Reynolds, M.P.* ; Aldermann, P.D.* ; Prasad, P.V.V.* ; Aggarwal, P.K.* ; Anothai, J.* ; Basso, B.* ; Biernath, C.J. ; Challinor, A.J.* ; de Sanctis, G.* ; Doltra, J.* ; Fereres, E.* ; Garcia-Vila, M.* ; Gayler, S.* ; Hoogenboom, G.* ; Hunt, L.A.* ; Izaurralde, R.C.* ; Jabloun, M.* ; Jones, C.D.* ; Kersebaum, K.C.* ; Koehler, A.-K.* ; Müller, C.* ; Naresh Kumar, S.* ; Nendel, C.* ; O'Leary, G.* ; Olesen, J.E.* ; Palosuo, T.* ; Priesack, E. ; Eyshi Rezaei, E.* ; Ruane, A.C.* ; Semenov, M.A.* ; Shcherbak, I.* ; Stöckle, C.* ; Stratonovitch, P.* ; Streck,T.* ; Supit, I.* ; Tao, F.* ; Thorburn, P.J.* ; Waha, K.* ; Wang, E.* ; Wallach, D.* ; Wolf, J.* ; Zhao, Z.* ; Zhu, Y.*

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.

Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 143-147 (2015)
DOI
Open Access Green as soon as Postprint is submitted to ZB.
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Corresponding Author
Keywords Climate-change; Spring Wheat; Dryland Wheat; Yield; Growth; Drought; Heat; Co2; Agriculture; Adaptation
ISSN (print) / ISBN 1758-678X
e-ISSN 1758-6798
Journal Nature Climate Change
Quellenangaben Volume: 5, Issue: 2, Pages: 143-147 Article Number: , Supplement: ,
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Publishing Place London
Non-patent literature Publications
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Institute of Soil Ecology (IBOE)