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An adaptive scheduling scheme for calculating Bayes factors with thermodynamic integration using Simpson’s rule.
Stat. Comp. 26, 663-677 (2015)
Bayesian model selection using Bayes factors requires the computation of marginal likelihoods. Nowadays, the marginal likelihoods are often computed using thermodynamic integration for power posteriors, which relies on numerical integration methods. The commonly used integration methods however neither control the integration accuracy nor exploit the available function evaluations efficiently. In this manuscript we introduce an adaptive method for calculating marginal likelihoods which relies on Simpson’s rule. The proposed method is evaluated on an analytically tractable academic example as well as two high-dimensional models possessing up to 800 parameters. The high-dimensional models describe the protein degradation in a large population of fibroblast cells. Our analysis reveals that the proposed adaptive method shows improved performance over existing approaches for simple problems and furthermore allows for the efficient study of high-dimensional problems.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Bayes Factor ; Marginal Likelihood ; Power Posterior ; Simpson’s Rule ; Thermodynamic Integration; Normalizing Constants; Marginal Likelihood; Model Selection
ISSN (print) / ISBN
0960-3174
Journal
Statistics and Computing
Quellenangaben
Volume: 26,
Issue: 3,
Pages: 663-677
Publisher
Springer
Publishing Place
Heidelberg [u.a.]
Non-patent literature
Publications
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Computational Biology (ICB)