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Quante, A.S. ; Herz, J. ; Whittemore, A.S.* ; Fischer, C.* ; Strauch, K. ; Terry, M.B.*

Assessing absolute changes in breast cancer risk due to modifiable risk factors.

Breast Cancer Res. Treat. 152, 193-197 (2015)
DOI PMC
Open Access Green as soon as Postprint is submitted to ZB.
Clinical risk assessment involves absolute risk measures, but information on modifying risk and preventing cancer is often communicated in relative terms. To illustrate the potential impact of risk factor modification in model-based risk assessment, we evaluated the performance of the IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, with and without current body mass index (BMI), for predicting future breast cancer occurrence in a prospective cohort of 665 postmenopausal women. Overall, IBIS's accuracy (overall agreement between observed and assigned risks) and discrimination (AUC concordance between assigned risks and outcomes) were similar with and without the BMI information. However, in women with BMI > 25 kg/m(2), adding BMI information improved discrimination (AUC = 63.9 % and 61.4 % with and without BMI, P < 0.001). The model-assigned 10-year risk difference for a woman with high (27 kg/m(2)) versus low (21 kg/m(2)) BMI was only 0.3 % for a woman with neither affected first-degree relatives nor BRCA1 mutation, compared to 4.5 % for a mutation carrier with three such relatives. This contrast illustrates the value of using information on modifiable risk factors in risk assessment and in sharing information with patients of their absolute risks with and without modifiable risk factors.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Keywords Bmi ; Breast Cancer ; Ibis ; Prediction Model ; Risk Evaluation; American Women; Sex-hormones
ISSN (print) / ISBN 0167-6806
e-ISSN 1573-7217
Journal Breast Cancer Research and Treatment
Quellenangaben Volume: 152, Issue: 1, Pages: 193-197 Article Number: , Supplement: ,
Publisher Springer
Publishing Place New York
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Institute of Genetic Epidemiology (IGE)