Concepts of association between cancer and ionising radiation: Accounting for specific biological mechanisms.
    
    
        
    
    
        
        Radiat. Environ. Biophys. 62, 1-15 (2023)
    
    
    
      
      
	
	    The probability that an observed cancer was caused by radiation exposure is usually estimated using cancer rates and risk models from radioepidemiological cohorts and is called assigned share (AS). This definition implicitly assumes that an ongoing carcinogenic process is unaffected by the studied radiation exposure. However, there is strong evidence that radiation can also accelerate an existing clonal development towards cancer. In this work, we define different association measures that an observed cancer was newly induced, accelerated, or retarded. The measures were quantified exemplarily by Monte Carlo simulations that track the development of individual cells. Three biologically based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) models were applied. In the first model, radiation initiates cancer development, while in the other two, radiation has a promoting effect, i.e. radiation accelerates the clonal expansion of pre-cancerous cells. The parameters of the TSCE models were derived from breast cancer data from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. For exposure at age 30, all three models resulted in similar estimates of AS at age 60. For the initiation model, estimates of association were nearly identical to AS. However, for the promotion models, the cancerous clonal development was frequently accelerated towards younger ages, resulting in associations substantially higher than AS. This work shows that the association between a given cancer and exposure in an affected person depends on the underlying biological mechanism and can be substantially larger than the AS derived from classic radioepidemiology.
	
	
	    
	
       
      
	
	    
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        Publication type
        Article: Journal article
    
 
    
        Document type
        Scientific Article
    
 
    
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        Keywords
        Assigned Share ; Carcinogenesis ; Probability Of Association ; Radiation Cancer Risk ; Two-stage Clonal Expansion Model; Atomic-bomb Survivors; Breast-cancer; Mutational Signatures; Probability; Risk; Model
    
 
    
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        Language
        english
    
 
    
        Publication Year
        2023
    
 
    
        Prepublished in Year
        0
    
 
    
        HGF-reported in Year
        2023
    
 
    
    
        ISSN (print) / ISBN
        0301-634X
    
 
    
        e-ISSN
        1432-2099
    
 
    
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	    Volume: 62,  
	    Issue: 1,  
	    Pages: 1-15 
	    Article Number: ,  
	    Supplement: ,  
	
    
 
    
        
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            Springer
        
 
        
            Publishing Place
            One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, Ny, United States
        
 
	
        
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        Reviewing status
        Peer reviewed
    
 
     
    
        POF-Topic(s)
        30203 - Molecular Targets and Therapies
    
 
    
        Research field(s)
        Radiation Sciences
    
 
    
        PSP Element(s)
        G-501391-001
    
 
    
        Grants
        Projekt DEAL
    
 
    
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        Erfassungsdatum
        2023-01-17