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Social response and measles dynamics.
Stats 6, 1280-1297 (2023)
Measles remains one of the leading causes of death among young children globally, even though a safe and cost-effective vaccine is available. Vaccine hesitancy and social response to vaccination continue to undermine efforts to eradicate measles. In this study, we consider data about measles vaccination and measles prevalence in Germany for the years 2008–2012 in 345 districts. In the first part of the paper, we show that the probability of a local outbreak does not significantly depend on the vaccination coverage, but—if an outbreak does take place—the scale of the outbreak depends significantly on the vaccination coverage. Additionally, we show that the willingness to be vaccinated is significantly increased by local outbreaks, with a delay of about one year. In the second part of the paper, we consider a deterministic delay model to investigate the consequences of the statistical findings on the dynamics of the infection. Here, we find that the delay might induce oscillations if the vaccination coverage is rather low and the social response to an outbreak is sufficiently strong. The relevance of our findings is discussed at the end of the paper.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Delay Differential Equation ; Measles Outbreaks ; Measles Vaccination ; Social Response ; Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Regression; Self-interest; Vaccination; Behavior
ISSN (print) / ISBN
2571-905X
e-ISSN
2571-905X
Journal
Stats
Quellenangaben
Volume: 6,
Issue: 4,
Pages: 1280-1297
Publisher
MDPI
Publishing Place
St Alban-anlage 66, Ch-4052 Basel, Switzerland
Non-patent literature
Publications
Institute(s)
Institute of Computational Biology (ICB)
Grants
Volkswagenstiftung