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Kakakhail, A.* ; Rextin, A.* ; Buters, J.T.M. ; Lin, C.* ; Maya-Manzano, J.M. ; Nasim, M.* ; Oteros, J.* ; Picornell, A.* ; Pinnock, H.* ; Schwarze, J.* ; Yusuf, O.*

Predicting the main pollen season of Broussonetia Papyrifera (paper mulberry) tree.

PLoS ONE 19:e0296878 (2024)
Publ. Version/Full Text DOI PMC
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
Paper mulberry pollen, declared a pest in several countries including Pakistan, can trigger severe allergies and cause asthma attacks. We aimed to develop an algorithm that could accurately predict high pollen days to underpin an alert system that would allow patients to take timely precautionary measures. We developed and validated two prediction models that take historical pollen and weather data as their input to predict the start date and peak date of the pollen season in Islamabad, the capital city of Pakistan. The first model is based on linear regression and the second one is based on phenological modelling. We tested our models on an original and comprehensive dataset from Islamabad. The mean absolute errors (MAEs) for the start day are 2.3 and 3.7 days for the linear and phenological models, respectively, while for the peak day, the MAEs are 3.3 and 4.0 days, respectively. These encouraging results could be used in a website or app to notify patients and healthcare providers to start preparing for the paper mulberry pollen season. Timely action could reduce the burden of symptoms, mitigate the risk of acute attacks and potentially prevent deaths due to acute pollen-induced allergy.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Corresponding Author
Keywords Airborne Pollen; Asthma
ISSN (print) / ISBN 1932-6203
Journal PLoS ONE
Quellenangaben Volume: 19, Issue: 2, Pages: , Article Number: e0296878 Supplement: ,
Publisher Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Publishing Place Lawrence, Kan.
Non-patent literature Publications
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Institute for Allergy Research (IAF)
Grants University of Malaga
UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (Global Health Research Unit on Respiratory Health (RESPIRE) using UK aid from the UK Government