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Chen, K.* ; de Schrijver, E.* ; Sivaraj, S.* ; Sera, F.* ; Scovronick, N.* ; Jiang, L.* ; Royé, D.* ; Lavigne, E.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; Urban, A.* ; Schneider, A.E. ; Huber, V. ; Madureira, J.* ; Mistry, M.N.* ; Cvijanovic, I.* ; Gasparrini, A.* ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.*

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.

Nat. Commun. 15:1796 (2024)
Publ. Version/Full Text DOI PMC
Open Access Gold
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Keywords Climate-change; Projections; Heat; Cold
ISSN (print) / ISBN 2041-1723
e-ISSN 2041-1723
Journal Nature Communications
Quellenangaben Volume: 15, Issue: 1, Pages: , Article Number: 1796 Supplement: ,
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Publishing Place London
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Institute of Epidemiology (EPI)
Grants Swiss National Foundation
Earth System Grid Federation
European Union
Medical Research Council UK
Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnlogia Grant
Czech Science Foundation
Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project
European Commission
Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant