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Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.
Nat. Commun. 15:1796 (2024)
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Climate-change; Projections; Heat; Cold
ISSN (print) / ISBN
2041-1723
e-ISSN
2041-1723
Journal
Nature Communications
Quellenangaben
Volume: 15,
Issue: 1,
Article Number: 1796
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Publishing Place
London
Non-patent literature
Publications
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Epidemiology II (EPI2)
Grants
Swiss National Foundation
Earth System Grid Federation
European Union
Medical Research Council UK
Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnlogia Grant
Czech Science Foundation
Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project
European Commission
Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant
Earth System Grid Federation
European Union
Medical Research Council UK
Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnlogia Grant
Czech Science Foundation
Italian Ministry of University and Research (MUR), Department of Excellence project
European Commission
Yale Planetary Solutions Project seed grant