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Chen, K.* ; de Schrijver, E.* ; Sivaraj, S.* ; Sera, F.* ; Scovronick, N.* ; Jiang, L.* ; Royé, D.* ; Lavigne, E.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; Urban, A.* ; Schneider, A.E. ; Huber, V. ; Madureira, J.* ; Mistry, M.N.* ; Cvijanovic, I.* ; Gasparrini, A.* ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.*

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.

Nat. Commun. 15:1796 (2024)

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Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.

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