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Huber, V. ; Breitner-Busch, S. ; He, C. ; Matthies-Wiesler, E.F. ; Peters, A. ; Schneider, A.E.

Heat-related mortality in the extreme summer of 2022. An analysis based on daily data.

Dtsch. Arztebl. Int. 121, 79-85 (2024)
DOI
Background: Estimating the excess mortality attributable to heat is a central element of the documentation of the consequences of climate change for human health. Until now, estimates of heat-related deaths in Germany by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) have been based on weekly mortality records. Methods: Our study is the first to use higher resolution data—i.e. daily all-cause mortality linked to daily mean temperatures—from each of the German federal states to assess the heat-related mortality from 2000 to 2023 in Germany, employing quasi-Poisson models and multivariate meta-regression analyses. We focus our analysis on the extreme summer of 2022. Results: Our analysis yielded an estimate of 9100 (95% CI: [7300; 10 700]) heat-related deaths in Germany for the summer of 2022, whereas previous studies of the RKI estimated the number of heat-related deaths at 4500 [2100; 7000]. When we set a higher temperature threshold in the definition of the heat risk, we arrived at a figure of 6900 [5500; 8100] heat-related deaths in 2022. In other summers that—similarly to 2022—were characterized by large fluctuations in daily mean temperatures, we also robustly estimated higher numbers of heat-related deaths than the RKI did. The exclusion of reported deaths due to COVID-19 had only a minor effect on our estimates. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that previous studies based on weekly mortality data have underestimated the full extent of heat-related mortality in Germany, particularly in the extreme summer of 2022. The monitoring of heat-related mortality should be systematic and as comprehensive as possible if it is to enable the development of effective heat-health action plans.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Corresponding Author
Keywords Lancet Countdown; Climate-change; Health; Temperature; Germany
ISSN (print) / ISBN 1866-0452
e-ISSN 1866-0452
Journal Deutsches Ärzteblatt international
Quellenangaben Volume: 121, Issue: 3, Pages: 79-85 Article Number: , Supplement: ,
Publisher Dt. Ärzte-Verl.
Publishing Place Dieselstrabe 2, Postfach 400265, D-50859 Cologne, Germany
Non-patent literature Publications
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Institute of Epidemiology II (EPI2)