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Merkt, S.* ; Ali, S.* ; Gudina, E.K.* ; Adissu, W.* ; Gize, A.* ; Muenchhoff, M.* ; Graf, A.* ; Krebs, S.* ; Elsbernd, K.* ; Kisch, R.* ; Betizazu, S.S.* ; Fantahun, B.* ; Bekele, D.* ; Rubio-Acero, R.* ; Gashaw, M.* ; Girma, E.* ; Yilma, D.* ; Zeynudin, A.* ; Paunovic, I.* ; Hoelscher, M. ; Blum, H.* ; Hasenauer, J. ; Kroidl, A.* ; Wieser, A.*

Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity.

Nat. Commun. 15:3463 (2024)

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Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.

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Publication type Article: Journal article

Document type Scientific Article

Corresponding Author

ISSN (print) / ISBN 2041-1723

e-ISSN 2041-1723

Journal Nature Communications

Quellenangaben Volume: 15, Issue: 1, Article Number: 3463

Publisher Nature Publishing Group

Publishing Place London

Non-patent literature Publications

Reviewing status Peer reviewed

Institute(s) Institute of Computational Biology (ICB)
Unit Global Health (UGH)

Grants Addis Ababa Health Bureau
Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research and the Arts (Bayerisches Staatsministerium)
Bundesministerium fr Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research)
EU
Volkswagenstiftung
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation)
University of Bonn - Free State of Bavaria
Jimma Medical Center, Oromia Regional Health Bureau
Germany Ministry of Education and Research