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Continental-scale evaluation of downy birch pollen production: Estimating the impacts of global change.
Environ. Res. 252:119114 (2024)
The high prevalence of hay fever in Europe has raised concerns about the implications of climate change-induced higher temperatures on pollen production. Our study focuses on downy birch pollen production across Europe by analyzing 456 catkins during 2019-2021 in 37 International Phenological Gardens (IPG) spanning a large geographic gradient. As IPGs rely on genetically identical plants, we were able to reduce the effects of genetic variability. We studied the potential association with masting behavior and three model specifications based on mean and quantile regression to assess the impact of meteorology (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric gases (e.g., ozone (O3) and carbon-dioxide (CO2)) on pollen and catkin production, while controlling for tree age approximated by stem circumference. The results revealed a substantial geographic variability in mean pollen production, ranging from 1.9 to 2.5 million pollen grains per catkin. Regression analyses indicated that elevated average temperatures of the previous summer corresponded to increased pollen production, while higher O3 levels led to a reduction. Additionally, catkins number was positively influenced by preceding summer's temperature and precipitation but negatively by O3 levels. The investigation of quantile effects revealed that the impacts of mean temperature and O3 levels from the previous summer varied throughout the conditional response distribution. We found that temperature predominantly affected trees characterized by a high pollen production. We therefore suggest that birches modulate their physiological processes to optimize pollen production under varying temperature regimes. In turn, O3 levels negatively affected trees with pollen production levels exceeding the conditional median. We conclude that future temperature increase might exacerbate pollen production while other factors may modify (decrease in the case of O3 and amplify for precipitation) this effect. Our comprehensive study sheds light on potential impacts of climate change on downy birch pollen production, which is crucial for birch reproduction and human public health.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Betula Pubescens ; Europe ; Masting Behavior ; Meteorology ; Plant Reproduction ; Quantile Regression ; Spatial Gradient
ISSN (print) / ISBN
0013-9351
e-ISSN
1096-0953
Journal
Environmental Research
Quellenangaben
Volume: 252,
Article Number: 119114
Publisher
Elsevier
Publishing Place
San Diego, Calif.
Non-patent literature
Publications
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Environmental Medicine (IEM)