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Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities.
Nat. Med., DOI: 10.1038/s41591-024-03452-2 (2025)
Previous health impact assessments of temperature-related mortality in Europe indicated that the mortality burden attributable to cold is much larger than for heat. Questions remain as to whether climate change can result in a net decrease in temperature-related mortality. In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe. Under the lowest mitigation and adaptation scenario (SSP3-7.0), we estimate a net death burden due to climate change increasing by 49.9% and cumulating 2,345,410 (95% confidence interval = 327,603 to 4,775,853) climate change-related deaths between 2015 and 2099. This net effect would remain positive even under high adaptation scenarios, whereby a risk attenuation of 50% is still insufficient to reverse the trend under SSP3-7.0. Regional differences suggest a slight net decrease of death rates in Northern European countries but high vulnerability of the Mediterranean region and Eastern Europe areas. Unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities should experience an increase of their temperature-related mortality burden.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Temperature-related Mortality; Excess Mortality; Projections; Time; Level
ISSN (print) / ISBN
1078-8956
e-ISSN
1546-170X
Journal
Nature medicine
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Publishing Place
New York, NY
Non-patent literature
Publications
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Epidemiology (EPI)
Grants
EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)
European Union
UK Medical Research Council
European Commission
DG REGIO of the European Commission
JRC
Swiss National Science Foundation
European Union
UK Medical Research Council
European Commission
DG REGIO of the European Commission
JRC
Swiss National Science Foundation