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Open Access Green as soon as Postprint is submitted to ZB.
Under-five mortality burden in low- and middle-income countries set to increase under future warming.
One Earth 8:101424 (2025)
The under-5 child mortality rate remains disproportionately high in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Children are particularly vulnerable to high temperatures, and climate change is expected to increase child mortality, yet few studies have investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and child mortality in LMICs. Here, using a sibling-matched case-control design, we examined the association between monthly ambient temperature and under-5 child mortality across 59 LMICs. We found that child mortality increased by 5.2%–10.3% under moderate to extreme temperature (32.0°C –34.9°C), compared to the reference temperature (25.0°C). Our estimates indicate high temperatures contributed to an estimated 5.7 deaths per 1,000 children in LMICs during 2000–2020. This number would increase by nearly 1.5, 2.9, and 3.2 times under the strict-, medium-, and high-emissions scenarios in 2090s, respectively. This study offers insight into the child mortality burden attributable to climate warming across historical and future periods in LMICs, emphasizing the vulnerabilities and inequalities of children in developing nations amid climate warming.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Children’s Health ; Climate Warming ; High Temperature ; Low-income And Middle-income Countries ; Sibling-matched Case-control Analysis ; Under-5 Child Mortality; Climate-change; Ambient-temperature; Infant-mortality; Childrens Health; Case-crossover; Heat Waves; Projections; Conflict; Exposure; Progress
ISSN (print) / ISBN
2590-3330
e-ISSN
2590-3322
Journal
One Earth
Quellenangaben
Volume: 8,
Issue: 9,
Article Number: 101424
Publisher
Elsevier
Publishing Place
50 Hampshire St, Floor 5, Cambridge, Ma 02139 Usa
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Epidemiology (EPI)
Grants
Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project
Shanghai B&R Joint Laboratory Project
Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Shanghai B&R Joint Laboratory Project
Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project
National Natural Science Foundation of China