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van Oosterhout, C.* ; Speak, S.A.* ; Birley, T.* ; Hitchings, L.W.G.* ; Bortoluzzi, C.* ; Percival-Alwyn, L.* ; Urban, L. ; Groombridge, J.J.* ; Segelbacher, G.* ; Morales, H.E.*

Genomic erosion in the assessment of species' extinction risk and recovery potential.

J. Hered.:esag011 (2026)
Publ. Version/Full Text DOI PMC
Open Access Hybrid
Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
Many species are undergoing rapid population declines and environmental deterioration, leading to genomic erosion. Here we define genomic erosion as the loss of genetic diversity, accumulation of deleterious mutations, maladaptation, and introgression, all of which can undermine individual fitness and long-term population viability. Critically, this process continues even after demographic recovery due to a time-lagged impact of genetic drift, which is known as drift debt. Current conservation assessments, such as the IUCN Red List, focus on short-term extinction risk and do not capture the long-term consequences of genomic erosion. Likewise, the longer-term assessments of the IUCN Green Status may overestimate population recovery by failing to account for the enduring effects of genomic erosion. As genome sequencing becomes increasingly accessible, there is a growing opportunity to quantify genomic erosion and integrate it into conservation planning. Here, we use genomic simulations to illustrate how different genomic metrics are sensitive to the drift debt. We test how ancestral effective population size (Ne) and bottleneck history influence the tempo and severity of genomic erosion. Furthermore, we demonstrate how these dynamics shape genetic load and additive genetic variation, which are key indicators of long-term evolutionary potential. Finally, we present a proof-of-concept for a Genomic Green Status framework that aligns genomic metrics with conservation impact assessments, laying the foundation for genomics-informed strategies to support species recovery.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Keywords Biodiversity ; Conservation ; Extinction ; Genomic Erosion ; Genomics; Genetic Diversity; Population-genetics; Fitness Decline; Conservation; Evolution; Selection; Hybridization; Variance; Patterns; Mutation
ISSN (print) / ISBN 0022-1503
e-ISSN 1465-7333
Journal Journal of Heredity
Quellenangaben Volume: , Issue: , Pages: , Article Number: esag011 Supplement: ,
Publisher Oxford University Press
Publishing Place Journals Dept, 2001 Evans Rd, Cary, Nc 27513 Usa
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Helmholtz Pioneer Campus (HPC)
Helmholtz Artifical Intelligence Cooperation Unit (HAICU)
Grants Earth and Life Systems Alliance
Norwich Research Park, UK
NERC ARIES PhD studentship
European Research Council
Wellcome
BBSRC
Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development
UEA and a Research Training Support Grant
Research England's Expanding Excellence in England (E3) Fund
UK Research and Innovation
Royal Society International Collaboration Award