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Ro, H.* ; Kim, Y.* ; Hashizume, M.* ; Madaniyazi, L.* ; Bell, M.L.* ; Honda, Y.* ; Gasparrini, A.* ; Masselot, P.* ; Sera, F.* ; Guo, Y.* ; Li, S.* ; Huang, W.* ; Coêlho, M.d.S.Z.S.* ; Saldiva, P.H.N.* ; Lavigne, E.* ; Correa, P.M.* ; Ortega, N.V.* ; Kan, H.* ; Royé, D.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; Urban, A.* ; Orru, H.* ; Indermitte, E.* ; Jaakkola, J.J.K.* ; Ryti, N.* ; Schneider, A.E. ; Huber, V. ; Michelozzi, P.* ; Francesca de’Donato,* ; Diaz, M.H.* ; Arellano, E.E.F.* ; Seposo, X.* ; Chua, P.L.C.* ; Holobâca, I.H.* ; Scovronick, N.* ; Acquaotta, F.* ; Kim, H.* ; Lee, W.* ; Tobias, A.* ; Carmen Íñiguez,* ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.* ; Ragettli, M.S.* ; Y, G.* ; Pan, S.* ; Armstrong, B.* ; Zanobetti, A.* ; Schwartz, J.* ; Ngọc Đăng, T.* ; Dung, D.V.* ; Schwarz, M. ; Chung, Y.*

Multi-country projections of temperature-related suicide mortality.

Nat. Ment. Health 4, 1130–1141 (2026)

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Rising temperatures have raised concerns about impacts on mental health, including suicide. However, how climate change will affect global temperature-related suicide remains unclear. Using data from 751 locations across 26 countries, combined with climate projections under 3 emissions scenarios, we estimated temperature–suicide associations and projected temperature-related suicide mortality through the 2050s, assuming no adaptation, demographic shifts or changes in suicide rate. Here we show that climate change is projected to increase suicide mortality attributable to temperature across all studied regions, with the magnitude depending on both the emissions scenario and geographic location. Warmer regions—including Central and South America, South Europe, Southeast Asia and South Africa—show larger increases, while temperate and colder regions such as North America, North Europe, East Asia and Australia show smaller but meaningful rises. These findings highlight the potential of climate change to exacerbate suicide and underscore the importance of adaptive mitigation strategies.

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Publication type Article: Journal article

Document type Scientific Article

Keywords Climate Change ; Temperate Climate ; Global Warming ; East Asia ; Climate Extremes ; Poison Control ; Suicide Prevention ; Affect (linguistics); Climate-change; Ambient-temperature; Excess Mortality; Health; Increase; Regions; Rates

ISSN (print) / ISBN 2731-6076

e-ISSN 2731-6076

Journal Nature Mental Health

Quellenangaben Volume: 4, Pages: 1130–1141

Publisher Nature Publishing Group

Publishing Place The Campus, 4 Crinan St, London, N1 9xw, England

Reviewing status Peer reviewed

Institute(s) Institute of Epidemiology (EPI)

Grants 'Ramn y Cajal' fellowship of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (No. RYC2022-036948-I), Wellcome project BREATHE (No. 308914/Z/23/Z).
Czech Science Foundation (No. 25-17587S)
NRF Basic Science Research Program by the Ministry of Education (No. 2019R1A6A1A10073887, RS-2025-25397599)
Wellcome project BREATHE (No. 308914/Z/23/Z)
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI (No. JP24K10701)
National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF)