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Tobias, A.* ; Hashizume, M.* ; Honda, Y.* ; Sera, F.* ; Ng, C.F.S.* ; Kim, Y.* ; Royé, D.* ; Chung, Y.* ; Dang, T.N.* ; Kim, H.* ; Lee, W.* ; Iñiguez, C.* ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.* ; Abrutzky, R.* ; Guo, Y.* ; Tong, S.* ; Coelho, M.S.Z.S.* ; Saldiva, P.H.N.* ; Lavigne, E.* ; Correa, P.M.* ; Ortega, N.V.* ; Kan, H.* ; Osorio, S.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; Urban, A.* ; Orru, H.* ; Indermitte, E.* ; Jaakkola, J.J.K.* ; Ryti, N.R.I.* ; Pascal, M.* ; Huber, V.* ; Schneider, A.E. ; Katsouyanni, K.* ; Analitis, A.* ; Entezari, A.* ; Mayvaneh, F.* ; Goodman, P.J.* ; Zeka, A.* ; Michelozzi, P.* ; de'Donato, F.* ; Alahmad, B.* ; Diaz, M.H.* ; De la Cruz Valencia, C.* ; Overcenco, A.* ; Houthuijs, D.* ; Ameling, C.* ; Rao, S.* ; Di Ruscio, F.* ; Carrasco, G.* ; Seposo, X.* ; Nunes, B.* ; Madureira, J.* ; Holobaca, I.H.* ; Scovronick, N.* ; Acquaotta, F.* ; Forsberg, B.* ; Åström, C.* ; Ragettli, M.S.* ; Guo, Y.L.* ; Chen, B.Y.* ; Li, S.* ; Colistro, V.* ; Zanobetti, A.* ; Schwartz, J.* ; Dung, D.V.* ; Armstrong, B.* ; Gasparrini, A.*

Geographical variations of the minimum mortality temperature at a global scale: A multicountry study.

Environ. Epi. 5:e169 (2021)

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Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 °C decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 °C) to continental (19.3 °C), temperate (21.7 °C), arid (24.5 °C), and tropical (26.5 °C). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 °C for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 °C for a 1 °C rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 °C rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 °C rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.

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