PuSH - Publikationsserver des Helmholtz Zentrums München: Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986

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Yang, D.* ; Hashizume, M.* ; Tobias, A.* ; Honda, Y.* ; Royé, D.* ; Oh, J.* ; Dang, T.N.* ; Kim, Y.* ; Abrutzky, R.* ; Guo, Y.* ; Tong, S.* ; Coelho, M.d.S.Z.S.* ; Saldiva, P.H.N.* ; Lavigne, E.* ; Correa, P.M.* ; Ortega, N.V.* ; Osorio, S.* ; Kyselý, J.* ; Urban, A.* ; Orru, H.* ; Indermitte, E.* ; Jaakkola, J.* ; Ryti, N.* ; Pascal, M.* ; Huber, V. ; Schneider, A.E. ; Katsouyanni, K.* ; Analitis, A.* ; Entezari, A.* ; Mayvaneh, F.* ; Goodman, P.* ; Zeka, A.* ; Michelozzi, P.* ; de’Donato, F.* ; Alahmad, B.* ; Diaz, M.H.* ; Valencia, C.D.L.C.* ; Overcenco, A.* ; Houthuijs, D.* ; Ameling, C.* ; Rao, S.* ; Nunes, B.* ; Madureira, J.* ; Holo-Bâc, I.H.* ; Scovronick, N.* ; Acquaotta, F.* ; Kim, H.* ; Lee, W.* ; Iñiguez, C.* ; Forsberg, B.* ; Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.* ; Ragettli, M.S.* ; Guo, Y.L.L.* ; Pan, S.C.* ; Li, S.* ; Sera, F.* ; Zanobetti, A.* ; Schwartz, J.* ; Armstrong, B.* ; Gasparrini, A.* ; Chung, Y.*

Temporal change in minimum mortality temperature under changing climate A multicountry multicommunity observational study spanning 1986–2015.

Environ. Epi. 8:e334 (2024)

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Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries. Methods: Daily time-series data for mortality and ambient mean temperature for 699 communities in 34 countries spanning 1986–2015 were analyzed using a two-stage meta-analysis. First, a quasi-Poisson regression was employed to estimate MMT and MMTP for each community during the designated subperiods. Second, we pooled the community-specific temporally varying estimates using mixed-effects meta-regressions to examine temporal changes in MMT and MMTP in the entire study population, as well as by climate zone, geographical region, and country. Results: Temporal increases in MMT and MMTP from 19.5 °C (17.9, 21.1) to 20.3 °C (18.5, 22.0) and from the 74.5 (68.3, 80.6) to 75.0 (71.0, 78.9) percentiles in the entire population were found, respectively. Temporal change was significantly heterogeneous across geographical regions (P < 0.001). Temporal increases in MMT were observed in East Asia (linear slope [LS] = 0.91, P = 0.02) and South-East Asia (LS = 0.62, P = 0.05), whereas a temporal decrease in MMT was observed in South Europe (LS = −0.46, P = 0.05). MMTP decreased temporally in North Europe (LS = −3.45, P = 0.02) and South Europe (LS = −2.86, P = 0.05). Conclusions: The temporal change in MMT or MMTP was largely heterogeneous. Population susceptibility in terms of optimum temperature may have changed under a warming climate, albeit with large region-dependent variations.

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