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Liu, B.* ; Asseng, S.* ; Müller, C.* ; Ewert, F.* ; Elliott, J.* ; Lobell, D.B.* ; Martre, P.* ; Ruane, A.C.* ; Wallach, D.* ; Jones, J.W.* ; Rosenzweig, C.* ; Aggarwal, P.* ; Alderman, P.D.* ; Anothai, J.* ; Basso, B.* ; Biernath, C.J. ; Cammarano, D.* ; Challinor, A.J.* ; Deryng, D.* ; de Sanctis, G.* ; Doltra, J.* ; Fereres, E.* ; Folberth, C.* ; Garcia-Vila, M.* ; Gayler, S.* ; Hoogenboom, G.* ; Hunt, L.A.* ; Izaurralde, R.C.* ; Jabloun, M.* ; Jones, C.D.* ; Kersebaum, K.C.* ; Kimball, B.A.* ; Koehler, A.-K.* ; Kumar, S.N.* ; Nendel, C.* ; O´Leary, G.* ; Olesen, J.E.* ; Ottmann, M.J.* ; Palosuo, T.* ; Prasad, P.V.V.* ; Priesack, E. ; Pugh, T.A.* ; Reynolds, M.* ; Rezaei, E.E.* ; Rötter, R.P.* ; Schmid, E.* ; Semenov, M.A.* ; Shcherbak, I.* ; Stehfest, E.* ; Stöckle, C.O.* ; Stratonovitch, P.* ; Streck,T.* ; Supit, I.* ; Tao, F.* ; Thorburn, P.J.* ; Waha, K.* ; Wall, G.W.* ; Wang, E.* ; White, J.W.* ; Wolf, J.* ; Zhao, Z.* ; Zhu, Y.*

Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods.

Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 1130-1136 (2016)
Postprint Research data DOI
Open Access Green
The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Corresponding Author
Keywords Climate-change; Winter-wheat; Crop Yields; Heat; Co2; Trends; Metaanalysis; Variability; Systems; Growth
ISSN (print) / ISBN 1758-678X
e-ISSN 1758-6798
Journal Nature Climate Change
Quellenangaben Volume: 6, Issue: 12, Pages: 1130-1136 Article Number: , Supplement: ,
Publisher Nature Publishing Group
Publishing Place London
Non-patent literature Publications
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP)