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Müller, J. ; Hösel, V.*

Contact tracing & super-spreaders in the branching-process model.

J. Math. Biol. 86:24 (2023)
Publ. Version/Full Text DOI PMC
Open Access Hybrid
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In recent years, it became clear that super-spreader events play an important role, particularly in the spread of airborne infections. We investigate a novel model for super-spreader events, not based on a heterogeneous contact graph but on a random contact rate: Many individuals become infected synchronously in single contact events. We use the branching-process approach for contact tracing to analyze the impact of super-spreader events on the effect of contact tracing. Here we neglect a tracing delay. Roughly speaking, we find that contact tracing is more efficient in the presence of super-spreaders if the fraction of symptomatics is small, the tracing probability is high, or the latency period is distinctively larger than the incubation period. In other cases, the effect of contact tracing can be decreased by super-spreaders. Numerical analysis with parameters suited for SARS-CoV-2 indicates that super-spreaders do not decrease the effect of contact tracing crucially in case of that infection.
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Publication type Article: Journal article
Document type Scientific Article
Keywords Branching Process ; Contact Tracing ; Epidemic Process ; Super-spreader; Transmission; Disease; Outbreaks; Events; Sars
Language english
Publication Year 2023
HGF-reported in Year 2023
ISSN (print) / ISBN 0303-6812
e-ISSN 1432-1416
Journal Journal of Mathematical Biology
Quellenangaben Volume: 86, Issue: 2, Pages: , Article Number: 24 Supplement: ,
Publisher Springer
Publishing Place Tiergartenstrasse 17, D-69121 Heidelberg, Germany
Reviewing status Peer reviewed
Institute(s) Institute of Computational Biology (ICB)
POF-Topic(s) 30205 - Bioengineering and Digital Health
Research field(s) Enabling and Novel Technologies
PSP Element(s) G-503800-001
Grants International Graduate School of Science and Engineering
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
DOI 10.1007/s00285-022-01857-6
WOS ID 000912015200002
WOS ID WOS:000912015200002
Scopus ID 85146139720
PubMed ID 36625934
Erfassungsdatum 2023-03-13
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