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Contact tracing & super-spreaders in the branching-process model.
J. Math. Biol. 86:24 (2023)
In recent years, it became clear that super-spreader events play an important role, particularly in the spread of airborne infections. We investigate a novel model for super-spreader events, not based on a heterogeneous contact graph but on a random contact rate: Many individuals become infected synchronously in single contact events. We use the branching-process approach for contact tracing to analyze the impact of super-spreader events on the effect of contact tracing. Here we neglect a tracing delay. Roughly speaking, we find that contact tracing is more efficient in the presence of super-spreaders if the fraction of symptomatics is small, the tracing probability is high, or the latency period is distinctively larger than the incubation period. In other cases, the effect of contact tracing can be decreased by super-spreaders. Numerical analysis with parameters suited for SARS-CoV-2 indicates that super-spreaders do not decrease the effect of contact tracing crucially in case of that infection.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Branching Process ; Contact Tracing ; Epidemic Process ; Super-spreader; Transmission; Disease; Outbreaks; Events; Sars
ISSN (print) / ISBN
0303-6812
e-ISSN
1432-1416
Journal
Journal of Mathematical Biology
Quellenangaben
Volume: 86,
Issue: 2,
Article Number: 24
Publisher
Springer
Publishing Place
Tiergartenstrasse 17, D-69121 Heidelberg, Germany
Non-patent literature
Publications
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Computational Biology (ICB)
Grants
International Graduate School of Science and Engineering
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft