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A general deterministic model of ordinary differential equations for a broad variety of different diseases.
Chaos Solitons Fractals 188:115475 (2024)
The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the pivotal role of mathematical models in comprehending pandemic dynamics and making accurate predictions under diverse interventions. Various mathematical models, particularly deterministic ones, have proven valuable for analyzing the impact of political, social, and medical measures during ongoing pandemics. In this study, we aim to formulate and characterize a comprehensive model applicable to different infectious diseases. Reviewing numerous disease-specific models reveals a common foundation in the Kermack–McKendrick model (SIR model). While there are more general versions incorporating population dynamics, vector populations, and vaccination, none encompass all attributes simultaneously. To address this gap, we propose a comprehensive general model capable of accommodating different transmission modes, pandemic control measures, and diverse pathogens. Unlike disease-specific models, having such a pre-established model with foundational mathematical properties analyzed eliminates the need to reevaluate these characteristics for each new disease-specific model. This article presents our comprehensive general model, supported by mathematical analysis and numerical simulations, offering a versatile tool for understanding the dynamics of emerging infectious diseases and guiding intervention strategies. The applicability of the model is demonstrated through simulations.
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Publication type
Article: Journal article
Document type
Scientific Article
Keywords
Compartmental Model ; Epidemic Control ; General Epidemic Model ; Numerical Simulation ; Ordinary Differential Equations ; Reproduction Rate; Dynamics
ISSN (print) / ISBN
0960-0779
e-ISSN
0960-0779
Journal
Chaos, Solitons and Fractals
Quellenangaben
Volume: 188,
Article Number: 115475
Publisher
Elsevier
Publishing Place
The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford Ox5 1gb, England
Non-patent literature
Publications
Reviewing status
Peer reviewed
Institute(s)
Institute of Radiation Medicine (IRM)
Research Unit Global Health (UGH)
Research Unit Global Health (UGH)
Grants
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)