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Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.
Glob. Change Biol. 26, 5942-5964 (2020)
Postprint
Forschungsdaten
DOI
PMC
Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.
Impact Factor
Scopus SNIP
Web of Science
Times Cited
Times Cited
Scopus
Cited By
Cited By
Altmetric
8.555
2.593
9
35
Anmerkungen
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Publikationstyp
Artikel: Journalartikel
Dokumenttyp
Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Schlagwörter
Crop Simulation Model ; Ensemble Modelling ; Model Intercomparison ; Smallholder Farming Systems ; Uncertainty; Elevated Carbon-dioxide; Crop Growth; Adaptation Options; Co2 Concentration; Southern Africa; Food Security; Soil-moisture; Water-balance; Dry Savanna; Wheat
Sprache
englisch
Veröffentlichungsjahr
2020
HGF-Berichtsjahr
2020
ISSN (print) / ISBN
1354-1013
e-ISSN
1365-2486
Zeitschrift
Global Change Biology
Quellenangaben
Band: 26,
Seiten: 5942-5964
Verlag
Wiley
Verlagsort
111 River St, Hoboken 07030-5774, Nj Usa
Begutachtungsstatus
Peer reviewed
Institut(e)
Research Unit Environmental Simulation (EUS)
POF Topic(s)
30202 - Environmental Health
Forschungsfeld(er)
Environmental Sciences
PSP-Element(e)
G-504912-001
WOS ID
WOS:000560085800001
Scopus ID
85089533478
PubMed ID
32628332
Erfassungsdatum
2020-10-21